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submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/fva8iuunm7641.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=609fe6329f6a60fd2f01e236096dd6c6677f07de Saturday Recap Singles: 1-3 (-2.1u) Little rough here, HOU took a lead with defense so there offense wasnt needed much. Gurly had 15 carrys and 2 TDs, but only mustered 50 yards. Perriman went offffff. Parlay: 1-1 (+3.6u) That was decent. Was nice to free roll a win after the Pats game, would have been nicer if the Rams could play defense on third and long when you know Jimmy G is looking only deep over the middle....twice in the same drive lol BBDLS: 0-1 (-0.7u) Rough, felt pretty confident about this one if the Rams covered. Still have one live though! :D SBBDLS: 0-1 (-0.5u) Man, I picked everything right on the card today, got HOU under, Rams +6, but both my HOU -3 and NE -7 were pushes, and in this contest a push is a loss. I might try again Today. Teasers: 1-0 (+1u) Hit the one posted and I put a big one in at the Ocean. It is still live. I will post it at the bottom in the teaser section. Sunday Games New Orleans at Tennessee (+2.5): Both teams come into this game looking for a win. NO has clinched their division, but is still looking for a number one seed in the playoffs. TEN is looking for the upset here to set up a huge rematch vs the Texans in W17. My algo actually has this pretty close to a PK with TEN favored after hfa is added. It will be very interesting to see how TEN handles the pressure of playing to stay alive in the playoffs. One huge note is the Saints average 420 total ypg at home but only 311 on the road. Brees is always a little more comfortable in his dome and there is predicted rain on Sunday in TEN. I'd say the worse the weather is, the more I lean TEN and the under. NY Giants at Washington (-2): A divisional match up here with no playoff implications but some draft order implications. NY is fresh off a Manning led home win vs. the Dolphins. Washington is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and was on track to be 4-0 except some last second weirdness lead to philly covering. Upon writing this, it looks like Jones is going to be back at QB for NY. Unfortunately for the Giants, he has been very fumble prone this year and the WAS pass rush is quietly tied for 7th in sacks this season. If there is a spot for NY to attack, it would be the slot as that is WAS's biggest leak defensively. If Jones returns, I will be looking in the direction of Tate who has been quiet since Jones sat. With two bad teams not playing for the post season, anything is possible, but currently the algo is leaning WAS. Pittsburgh at NY Jets (+3): Everyone is talking about a revenge game for Bell. I see it as the opposite. A revenge game for the Steelers to show Bell this game is a team effort. Honestly this is one of the tougher picks for me. The algo has PIT -1. What makes these games that involve the bottom 10 teams in the league difficult to cap is you just don't know if they want to win. Every win hurts their draft stock for next season so yea, a win is nice, but it doesn't benefit the team except a day of feel good. Obviously I want to side with a Steeler defense that has been keeping them in the playoff hunt allowing 21 points or less in each of the last six games. ...But who knows if duck is going to flop or fly like an Eagle.... With such a low total, there's no props except defensive that I would look at. As for a side, I will probably fade this game. Cincinnati at Miami (+1): This game features another two teams high up in the draft order. It opened as MIA -3 but has quickly moved to the other side and sits at CIN -1. My algo leans Cincy just based on the fact that their defense is slightly better and offensively they just have more options. ALL CIN WRs and RBs have a favorable match up here but I would say Mixon is the safest option as taking the RB takes the risk of Dalton not being able to get it to his receivers. As for MIA, they only player I have been looking at for them is DeVante Parker. Carolina at Indianapolis (-6.5): Both teams are coming off losses and neither team has a chance to make the playoffs. Carolina will be starting a new QB. How can you cap that? This is a prime game to either ride the ml of the dog or the points on the favorite. TY Hilton came back last week against the Saints but found no room to make anything happen. This week he draws a very weak Carolina secondary. Also, Mack has been quiet for the last few games but also has a very good match up in this game. CMC is only like 120 Rec yards away from having a 1k and 1k season. With a new starting QB and only 2 games to hit the record and not much else for the "team" to play for...I will be looking for CMC to do some work. Baltimore at Cleveland (+10): This game opened at 7 and has since moved up to 10. Cleveland is out of the playoffs and essentially playing for pride. Baltimore has clinched their division, a playoff spot, and now plays for the number one seed in the post season. Baltimore hasn't lost since the played CLE in week 4. Wouldn't it be crazy if Baltimore had this crazy good season but somehow got swept by CLE in the regular season? It would almost validate all of CLE's struggles this season. It probably won't happen with as bad as CLE has been vs. the run, especially since losing Myles Garret but it's an interesting thought. Jacksonville at Atlanta (-7): This is another one of those anything can happen games. Last week the Falcon's showed life by upsetting the 49ers. They have been much better defensively since their bye week and it show going 4-2. Jacksonville flamed out of the playoffs after putting Foles back into the lineup, but as soon as they benched him for the Mustache, they won again. However, in non conference games since 2015 ATL is 5-23 ATS. and vs. the AFC since 2017....0-11 ATS. So as hard as it may be, I am going to once again ride with the Stache and his number one target, Chark. Detroit at Denver (-6.5): Both of these teams coming off brutal losses. DET was crushed at home by Winston and it looks like they have resigned to trying to get the best draft pick. DEN was crushed in a snow game in KC but haven't given up, upsetting HOU the week before. The only negative I see for DEN players is the timing of the game. They have been on the road for the last 4 games and now come home to play on Christmas week. Hopefully they can handle business because they have the wonderful opportunity to go up against a DET secondary that hasn't won a game since October. Oakland at LA Chargers (-6.5): Both 4pm games feature losing teams coming off disappointing losses. OAK lost their final home game in OAK ever to the Mustache led Jags and the Chargers lost their last game in a home blowout loss to MIN. Neither team has playoff hopes and a win only hurts their draft stock. The algo is favoring the Chargers as both teams have an offense with potential, but the LAC have clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball. However, as neither teams could use a win as much as a loss, this is another low confidence lean, not a smash. Dallas at Philadelphia (+1.5): DUN DUN DUNNNNN. The playoffs are here! These two teams face off in what is essentially a game for the NFC East division title, and a trip to the playoffs. Both teams are coming off wins. DAL dismantled the Rams last week in an impressive showing, while PHL struggled against WAS but pulled it out in the end. Philly has one of the better run defenses in the league, but Zeek just seems to crush the Eagles, "Elliott has never lost to the Eagles; he’s 5-0. Since 2016, the Eagles are 2-5 against Dallas and their only two wins have come without Elliott in the lineup. In five career games against the Eagles, Elliott has 815 yards from scrimmage (163 per game) and three touchdowns " Should be interesting to see which continues. The Eagles good run game? Or Zeke's Eagle Dominance? Arizona at Seattle (-9.5): Last of the mid day games. A divisional match up that means nothing for AZ but one that SEA would love to book in the W column as they are still fighting for playoff seeding. Last time these two teams played SEA had an EZ W, But, that was one of the only games that SEA has played that didnt end within 1 score. It's already 1130 today so I don't have time to do the in depth analysis for every game today, but the algo is leaning on AZ and a high scoring game here. If I have time today I will update this analysis with which props I am taking, currently none because I want to get the early picks posted but tune back in later in the day to see if this gets update with props for this game. Kansas City at Chicago (+6.5): Chicago is out of the playoffs with that loss to GB last week. KC is starting to get hot at the right time. Chi is 2-0 ATS as a home dog this year, but I cant step in front of the KC train. Their team stock went way down after the losses and PM injury and everyone forgot about them. Now it seems PM is back to his last season form with almost full hand strength. Along with his progression, the KC defense has really stepped up in the last few weeks. Right now with the number under +7, the algo is leaning with the favorite. Singles 123-128-3 (+18.8u)
I will update more bets and analysis for the later games as the day goes on. I just want to put these picks out with now with enough time for everyone to read them. Thanks for reading. Good luck to all! :D |
Player | Position | New team |
---|---|---|
Brian Hoyer | QB | Texans |
Jim Leonard | SS | Retired |
Miles Austin | WR | Eagles |
Jordan Cameron | TE | Dolphins |
Ahtyba Rubin | DL | Seahawks |
Jabaal Sheard | OLB | Patriots |
Buster Skrine | CB | Jets |
Paul McQuistan | OL | Released |
Spencer Lanning | P | Buccaneers |
Nick McDonald | OL | Released |
Christian Yount | LS | Released |
Player | Position | Old team |
---|---|---|
Josh McCown | QB | Buccaneers |
Brian Hartline | WR | Dolphins |
Dwayne Bowe | WR | Chiefs |
Tramon Williams | CB | Packers |
Randy Starks | DL | Dolphins |
Rob Housler | TE | Cardinals |
Thad Lewis | QB | Texans, Bills, Browns, fuck, maybe Argonauts? |
Andy Lee | P | Niners (Trade) |
Player | Round, Pick | Analysis |
---|---|---|
Danny Shelton, DT, Washington | 1.12 | The main commitment from the Browns this year was to fix the run D, and Feast Mode is here to do just that. Shelton is a big, BIG boy at 339lbs, and although most expect him to be a 2-down player, he's an animated, deceptively quick anchor NT who happened to do his workouts for the draft in a fucking lava lava. He then won the hearts of America when he attempted to hit Goodell with the belly-to-belly suplex. We already love this dude, his story is incredible, and I hope he becomes a fixture on the defensive line for years, maybe even as a 3-down player if his weight keeps in check. It's high time we got the D-Line right in the long term. |
Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State | 1.19 | In the bar I was sitting in watching on draft night, almost everyone walked out when the Browns passed on Breshad Perriman. Perriman may turn out to be a fantastic WR, but this pick was honestly way smarter than Farmer's gotten credit for: One, it provides a safety net for if Alex Mack opts to leave Cleveland after this offseason, as Erving was a more than capable C at FSU. Two, it pushes Mitchell Schwartz and John "Get Pushed Back Seven Yards Every Play" Greco into competition on the right side of the line. If you aren't elite, shoring up the lines is never a bad idea, and this was an investment with not just 2015 but 2016 and beyond in mind. That's something you don't see in Cleveland often. |
Nate Orchard, OLB, Utah | 2.19 | A theme of this draft was "Let's pass on Jaelen Strong and make JohnnyFire angry", but we made up for that getting a guy who was just an awesome fit. Orchard may have been a bit of a "one-year sensation", but he also fits exactly the character and play style that Pettine is looking for in the pass rush and will quickly make up for the loss of Jabaal Sheard, as well as pushing Mingo and Kruger to keep up. This seemed so obvious even dumb me was able to predict it on the /Browns contest this year. |
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami | 3.13 | At this point in the draft I'd accepted the Browns were just not going to take a WR, especially since now all of the ones with any hype (aside from Sammie Coates) were well off the board. That said, Duke Johnson possess speed that Terrance "Instagram Failure" West lacks and escapability that Isaiah "Lunchables Enthusiast" Crowell lacks, and he can catch passes. Yes, the Browns maybe didn't need Duke Johnson, but who cares; if there's a special player available as the BPA, you get him, and if Johnson lives up to his potential, he could be a huge get for the Browns. |
Xavier Cooper, DL, Washington State | 3.32 | Much was made post-draft of how heavily the Browns scouted the Pac-12, and this is true when they garnered (to some) the best two D-Line prospects in the conference. Cooper actually fits a bit more of the mold of Randy Starks, and although he is a raw talent, he'll have a great mentor and get time to develop. To sneak up and grab a second highly-touted piece to stop the run and improve the Front 7 was incredibly solid of this FO. |
Ibraheim Campbell, SS, Northwestern | 4.16 | Oh hey, the guy I always grabbed using the First-Pick simulator to bump up my final score in the 4th round! Truth is that Donte Whitner isn't going to be around forever, and Campbell was a strong S prospect (albeit in a weak class) that could learn well from the veteran, and will contribute heavily on special teams with the loss of Jim Leonard. |
Vince Mayle, WR, Washington State | 4.24 | Okay, Farmer, let's talk a moment. I love what you did with this draft. I really do. But this is the first WR you opt to take? Yeah, Mayle has prototypical size, and yeah, he could certainly be molded into a solid weapon due to his raw athleticism. But in order to get to this point, you left on the board Devante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Devin Smith, Dorial Green Beckham, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Jaelen Strong, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Ty Montgomery, Jamison Crowder and Justin Hardy. Many of those guys I honestly didn't even want, but this pick sadly reeked of just being too-little-too-late. But I'm gonna root for Super Smash Bros. Mayle and hope he develops quickly. |
Charles Gaines, CB, Louisville | 6.13 | Mike Pettine has a fetish for CB’s, we know this. Gaines lacks a lot in size, and that's the main thing that kept him from getting over the hump, but working in the slot and using his speed, he could be beyond just a depth or special teams guy when called upon. An okay depth move all things considered. |
Malcolm Johnson, TE/HB, Mississippi State | 6.19 | With the Browns going run-first in 2015, you need to get someone who can work better as a FB than...god, I can't even make a joke here because I can't remember the name of a Browns FB to save my life. Johnson will probably end up being asked to be an H-Back TE who could slot in at FB and help open lanes, or push forward. |
Randall Tefler, TE, USC | 6.22 | Another Pac-12 find. I wasn't a huge fan on many TE's in the draft class, although I would've liked to see the Browns make an effort to get someone more dynamic. That said, Tefler is a solid blocker who will likely be used to add depth/replace Gary Barnidge or Jim "Forgot About" Dray in the blocker TE role. If nothing else, a low-risk depth move. |
Hayes Pullard, ILB, USC | 7.2 | A very patient player who seemed to lack the killer instinct that other ILB prospects showed on the field, Pullard this late was a decent pick-up. He'll have a good mentor in Dansby and he can function well as a role-player and special teams guy. |
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon | 7.24 | I was actually watching the pre-Kentucky Derby at a casino in Cleveland when this pick was made, and there was an audible "HOLY CRAP!" from so many people around when the pick was finalized. There will be a lot asked for Captain IEO (He needs to moonwalk for his touchdown pick-6 return celebrations while "Another Part of Me" plays, real talk.) to get back to full strength in 2016, but if Ifo manages to get back to there and meets his expectations, this secondary could be fucking insane. Haden, Williams, a ton of young talent, and a guy who would've been a first round pick if he'd come out one year earlier. There was no risk in this; this late in the draft, see if you can't find your next Richard Sherman. |
Position Group | Strengths | Weaknesses |
---|---|---|
QB | Manziel is still young. McCown won't do anything too stupid. | Manziel is still a rookie. McCown won't do anything too smart. |
RB | Depth. Three dynamic backs bringing something different to the table with each. | Lack of experience; two sophomores and a rookie. |
WTE | Lots of guys with a lot to prove. | That proof needs to come fast: no proven talent, no proven game-changers, no proven big-bodied true WR1. |
O-Line | Depth has been added, the left side is fucking impeccable, could be a top 10 line this year if all are healthy. | The weakest point (Mitchell Schwartz) will be pretty weak comparatively. |
D-Line | Heavy investment in developing the Lake Erie Buffet Line with Starks, Shelton, and Cooper. | A few odd-men out in the rotation, need to get Shelton to speed quick. |
LB Corps | Strong veteran presence, Mingo getting better. | But if the pass rush does improve, is it time to revamp again? |
Secondary | Deep as fuck, young, two strong starters and solid nickel options. | I still wouldn't want to run sets with Haden not on the field; where does Gilbert fit? |
Special Teams | We don't have Billy Cundiff anymore. | Our kicker is not Phil Dawson. |
Years | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 Years (1972-1986) | 777 | 1802 | 337 | 62 | 117 | 754 | .320 | .413 |
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